https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-04-21\/fed-s-forecasting-method-looks-increasingly-outdated-as-bernanke-pitches-new-way<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n(\ube14\ub8f8\ubc84\uadf8) — \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ub04a\uc784\uc5c6\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\uc744 \ub4a4\uc5ce\uc73c\uba74\uc11c, \ud2b9\ud788 \ud55c\uc815\ub41c \uac83\ucc98\ub7fc \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \ubc0f \uacf5\uac1c \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc5d0 \ube60\uc838 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \ud2c0\ub9b0 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \uc790\uc8fc \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc911\uc559 \uc608\uce21(\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 2024\ub144\uc5d0 \uc138 \ubc88\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558)\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd98 \uac83\uc774 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc778 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc1c\uc0dd \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub9ce\uc740 \uac83\uc744 \uc804\ub2ec\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc774\ubbf8 \uad6c\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uadfc\ub798 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc99d\uac70 \ubd84\uc11d \ubc29\ubc95\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uc120\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud558\uace0 \uc911\uc559 \uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc720\uc6a9\ud55c \uc804\uc220\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\ubc84\ub0c9\ud0a4 \ubcf8\uc778\ub3c4 \ud604\uc7ac \ub300\uc11c\uc591 \uac74\ub108\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc744 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc774\ub2ec\uc5d0 \uc601\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc601\uad6d \uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \ucc44\ud0dd\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ucc44\ud0dd\ud55c \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8\ub294 \uc544\ub2c8\uba70 \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc2a4\uc6e8\ub374\uc758 \ub9ac\ud06c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c\ub294 \ub300\uc548 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc774\ubbf8 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc911\uc559 \ubc0f \ub300\uc548 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \ubaa8\ub450 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \u201c\ub300\uc911\uc740 \ubc18\uc751 \uae30\ub2a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub354 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \ucd94\ub860\uc744 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ub418\uc5b4 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uce58\ub97c \ub354 \uc798 \uc608\uc0c1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc84\ub0c9\ud0a4\ub294 \uadf8\uc758 BOE \uc608\uce21 \ubc29\ubc95 \uac80\ud1a0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc37c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900 \uad00\ub9ac\ub4e4\uc744 \ub180\ub77c\uac8c \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 12\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 3\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0, \uadf8\ub4e4\uc740 2024\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c 0.7% \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ud558\uace0 \uc62c\ud574 \uc138 \ucc28\ub840\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uadf8\ub4e4\uc758 \uc911\uac04 \ucd94\uc815\uce58\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uadf8 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc801\uc5b4\ub3c4 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc4f8\ubaa8\uc5c6\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4: \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uc778\ud558 \ud69f\uc218\ub97c \uc904\uc600\uace0, \uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud55c \ubc88 \uc774\ud558 \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \ub3d9\uc804 \ub358\uc9c0\uae30 \uc815\ub3c4\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\ub4e4\uc740 \uc131\uc7a5, \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubc0f \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c 19\uba85\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc785\uc548\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uacac\ud574\ub97c \ubaa8\uc740 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc124\uacc4\uc640 \uc758\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c, \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc640 \ubd84\uc11d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc744 \uc911\uac04 \ucd94\uc815\uce58\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\ub3c4\ub85d \ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud604\uc7ac\uc640 \uac19\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b8 \ub54c, \uc804\uccb4 \uacac\ud574 \ubc94\uc704\ub294 \ub354 \uc911\uc694\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 19\uba85 \uc911 9\uba85\uc758 \uad00\ub9ac\ub4e4\uc740 2024\ub144\uc5d0 \ub450 \ubc88 \ub610\ub294 \uadf8 \uc774\ud558\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc218\uce58\uac00 \ub3c4\ucc29\ud568\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac11\uc790\uae30 \ub354 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc788\ub294 \uacac\ud574\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900 \uc758\uc7a5 \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4\uc740 \uc911\uc559 \uc740\ud589\uc774 \ucd5c\uc885\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub04a\uc784\uc5c6\uc774 \ubc18\ubcf5\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uadf8\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub0b4\ub7ec\ud2f0\ube0c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4\uc838 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\uc5f0\uc900 \uc9c1\uc6d0 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc815\ucc45 \uc785\uc548\uc790\ub4e4\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc2e4\ud589\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub294 \ubaa8\ub378 \uc911\uc2ec\uc774\uba70 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \ubc18\uc751\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud569\uc758\ub41c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70, 5\ub144\uc758 \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc744 \uac70\uccd0 \uacf5\uac1c\ub418\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158 \ubaa9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uad00\ub828\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n